Monday Night Football Pick: Battle of Position For Steelers and 49ers
Sunday, December 18, 2011
by Aengus Moorehead
Analysis:
Being without two-time Super Bowl-winning QB Ben Roethlisberger is not an appealing thought for the Pittsburgh Steelers, particularly when going up against a defense that has surrendered the fewest points in the league this season. Pittsburgh LB James Harrison is expected to miss the contest after he was suspended one game for a helmet-to-helmet hit on Cleveland Browns QB Colt McCoy. The Niners have wrapped up the NFC West, but have lost two of their last three games.
The Steelers will enter this high-profile showdown with quarterback Ben Roethlisberger a question mark due to an ankle sprain he suffered in the team's most recent win.
Roethlisberger was sidelined for part of the second quarter after hurting his ankle against the Browns, though the notoriously-resilient signal-caller did return after halftime and sealed the victory with a 79-yard touchdown pass to wide receiver Antonio Brown with under three minutes to go. The two-time Super Bowl winner has remained hobbled with the injury during this week's practice sessions, however, and his status will likely be touch-and-go up until game time.
Roethlisberger has missed just one game because of injury over the past four seasons and has a well-established reputation of playing through pain. If he's held out for Monday's clash, 14-year veteran Charlie Batch will direct the offense.
Harrison, on the other hand, has no chance of suiting up after the NFL upheld its ban on the hard-hitting defender on Friday for his helmet-to-helmet shot on McCoy. The 2008 Defensive Player of the Year was fined four times by the league last season for violations of safety rules.
Pittsburgh's defense still figures to be in good hands even without Harrison. The Steelers enter this week's play having yielded the second-fewest points (15.2 ppg) and total yards (276.1 ypg) in 2011, despite the four-time Pro Bowler having been inactive for four games with a fractured orbital bone earlier in the year and fellow pass-rushing terror LaMarr Woodley out the same amount of time with a hamstring pull.
The Steelers prevailed for the fourth straight game and eighth time in nine outings with their Week 14 decision over Cleveland, keeping the club tied with rival Baltimore atop the AFC North standings. Pittsburgh can clinch a playoff berth for the fourth time in five years by downing the 49ers or if either Denver, Oakland, Tennessee or the New York Jets lose on Sunday.
San Francisco has already punched a ticket to its conference tournament, the franchise's first postseason entry since 2002, by claiming the NFC West two weeks ago. The Niners still have plenty of play for, however, with an opening- round bye still up for grabs over the final three weeks.
The 49ers lost some ground in their battle with New Orleans for the likely No. 2 overall seed, however, after dropping a 21-19 result at surging Arizona last Sunday. The Cardinals rallied from a 12-point third-quarter deficit with a pair of touchdown passes from second-string quarterback John Skelton.
The setback was the second in three weeks for San Francisco following a scorching 9-1 start under rookie head coach Jim Harbaugh, with the Niners also bested by Baltimore by a 16-6 count on Thanksgiving night.
The 49ers top the league in scoring defense (14.0 ypg), and last week's point total by the Cardinals was the most the team has allowed since a 24-23 win at Philadelphia in Week 4.
San Francisco holds a slim 10-9 edge in its all-time series with Pittsburgh, with the Steelers closing the gap with a 37-16 home rout when these teams last met in 2007. The 49ers had taken four of the previous five bouts in the set prior to that loss, including a 30-14 verdict at Candlestick Park in 2003. The Steelers last won in San Francisco on Nov. 7, 1999, a 27-6 victory.
Pittsburgh head coach Mike Tomlin moved to 1-0 against the 49ers for his career with that 2007 outcome, while Harbaugh will be facing both the Steelers and Tomlin for the first time in his present position.
Time & Venue:
- 8:30 PM ET, Monday, December 19, 2011. Candlestick Park, San Francisco, California
Last Week's results:
- Pittsburgh Steelers (-14) beats visiting Cleveland Browns 14-3.
- San Francisco 49ers (-3.5) loses to host Arizona Cardinals 21-19.
Last week's ATS:
- Favourite Pittsburgh Steelers (10-3) wins but does not cover
- Favourite San Francisco 49ers (10-3) loses outright.
NFL Football Odds: 49ers -3, O/U 37.5
Next up:
- Pittsburgh home to St. Louis Rams, Saturday, December 24
- San Francisco at Seattle Seahawks, Saturday, December 24
Pittsburgh has won four straight to remain in a four-way tie for the best record in the AFC. The Steelers have been dominant defensively since their bye week, allowing a total of 19 points in their last three games. They could be tested without Harrison, who has 8.0 sacks despite missing four games due to injury. Roethlisberger played the second half of a 14-3 win over Cleveland despite the ankle injury, but said the pain feels worse this week. He has not missed a game because of injury since December 2009.
San Francisco blew a 12-point second-half lead in a 21-19 loss at Arizona last week. Stud MLB Patrick Willis sat out his second straight game with a hamstring injury. The Niners have struggled to find the end zone, getting 10 field goals from David Akers in the past three games. RB Frank Gore ripped off five straight 100-yard games earlier in the season, but has been dealing with injuries and has not surpassed 88 yards in his last five. QB Alex Smith is coming off one of his worst games, failing to complete half his passes and throwing for 175 yards.
Without question, what will transpire at the quarterback position for Pittsburgh will have a big impact on the outcome of this game. Though Batch is serviceable and experienced, it would be a stretch to believe he'll be able to slice through a top-tier defense like San Francisco's without a hitch, and it's a must that the Steelers mount some semblance of a passing threat because the 49ers are so good against the run. Even at far less than 100 percent, Roethlisberger gives his team its best chance of winning, though Pittsburgh's explosiveness on offense may be reduced if his arm strength is affected by the injury.
The 49ers will likely encounter some difficulty running the ball on Monday, especially with Gore not having been in top form lately, so it's absolutely critical that the team protects Smith sufficiently. San Francisco's quarterback has been sacked five or more times in four games this season, and the Niners are 1-3 in those tilts. If Woodley does indeed make it back, Pittsburgh will have a pass rush to be reckoned with regardless of Harrison's absence.
Pittsburgh is going to have to rely on its defense whether or not Roethlisberger suits up, and how the AFC powerhouses perform on that side of the ball is often an indicator of their success. The Steelers are 9-0 when giving up 306 total yards or less this season, and the 49ers average only a shade above that number on offense for the year.
San Francisco has not allowed a 100-yard rusher in 35 contests and is the first team to not surrender a rushing TD in the first 13 games.
Pittsburgh has won its last six appearances on Monday Night Football.
This will mark only the third meeting between the teams in nine seasons. The 49ers hold a 10-9 all-time series edge.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Francisco's last 5 games when playing Pittsburgh
San Francisco is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Pittsburgh
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of San Francisco's last 8 games
Pittsburgh is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing San Francisco
Pittsburgh is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Pittsburgh is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games
Roethlisberger is rarely at a loss for drama, whether it's on or off the field, and his history says there's a pretty good chance he's in the huddle with his teammates come Monday. And the Steelers will need their clutch quarterback in this game, with the 49ers likely to shut down any attempts Pittsburgh makes at running the ball.
San Francisco's been able to win double-digit games largely by establishing an efficient ground attack and playing superior defense than its foe, but both of those chores will be tough to accomplish against the Steelers. Experience counts as well, and Pittsburgh's familiarity with participating in high-stakes affairs combined with the 49ers' newness to the scene puts another check mark in the column of the reigning AFC champs, who seem to possess the requisite skills that their opponent could have plenty of trouble dealing with.
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NFL Football Pick: Take Steelers.
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Tags
afc north - alex smith - antonio brown - arizona cardinals - ben roethlisberger - candlestick park - charlie batch - cleveland browns - colt mccoy - david akers
