NFL Free Picks: Should be a doddle As Packers Travel To Minnesota
Sunday, October 23, 2011
by Aengus Moorehead
Analysis:
The Minnesota Vikings have finally deemed Christian Ponder ready for action, though the rookie quarterback hasn't exactly been placed in the softest of spots for his anticipated first career NFL start.
Ponder will attempt to invigorate a sputtering Minnesota offense when the 2011 first-round draft pick leads the Vikings into battle against the league's highest-scoring and only remaining unbeaten team, the Green Bay Packers, who'll be invading the Metrodome on Sunday with a chance to break a 49-year- old franchise record for consecutive wins.
Vikings head coach Leslie Frazier finally pulled the plug on the Donovan McNabb experiment after the declining veteran struggled once again in last Sunday's lopsided loss at rival Chicago. McNabb was removed in favor of the untested Ponder in the fourth quarter of Minnesota's eventual 39-10 defeat after the offense mustered a mere 176 total yards and 10 first downs under his command.
Ponder in his official debut and showed enough for Frazier, who had previously remained steadfast in his support of McNabb during the Vikings' slow start, to give the talented 23-year-old an extended opportunity.
The Vikings have amassed the second-fewest passing yards in the NFL this season, though McNabb wasn't solely to blame for the team's wretched performance against the Bears. The six-time Pro Bowler was sacked five times behind a suspect offensive line that also failed to open holes for star running back Adrian Peterson, the defense failed to mount consistent pressure on Chicago quarterback Jay Cutler and the special teams surrendered a back- breaking kick return touchdown to Devin Hester early in the second half.
With fellow NFC North contender Detroit losing last week, Green Bay is now the sole owner of a perfect record this season after running its mark to 6-0 with a 24-3 ousting of still-winless St. Louis this past Sunday. The victory was the 12th in a row for the reigning Super Bowl champions when including the 2010 postseason, which matched the longest streak in club history set from 1961-62.
The Packers would also register their first 7-0 beginning since 1962 with a win on Sunday, though they haven't been entirely devoid of problems during their present surge. Green Bay has permitted nearly 300 passing yards per game thus far, the second-highest total in the league, and gave up 424 total yards to the hapless Rams last week.
There have been far fewer concerns on the offensive side, as the Packers have averaged an NFL-best 32.8 points per game over the initial six weeks and continue to get nearly-flawless play under center from quarterback Aaron Rodgers. The Super Bowl XLV Most Valuable Player became the first player since the 1970 merger to record six consecutive outings with a passer rating of 110 or better to open a season with his 316-yard, three-touchdown effort against the Rams.
Time & Venue:
- 4:15 PM ET, Sunday, October 23, 2011. Mall of America Field at H.H.H. Metrodome, Minneapolis, Minnesota
Last Week's results:
- Green Bay Packers (-14.5) beats visiting St-Louis Rams 24-3.
- Minnesota Vikings (+3) loses to host Chicago Bears 39-10.
Last week's ATS:
- Favourite Green Bay (6-0) wins and covers
- Underdog Minnesota (1-5) loses and does not cover.
NFL Football Odds: Green Bay - 10.5, O/U 47
Next up:
- Green Bay at San Diego, Sunday, November 6
- Minnesota at Carolina, Sunday, October 30
With a win Sunday, the Packers would eclipse the franchise record of 12 straight wins, which was set under Vince Lombardi from 1961-62. Rodgers, who leads the NFL in touchdown passes (17) and completion percentage (70.2), is the first quarterback to have a rating of at least 110 in each of the first six games. He threw three touchdowns – including a career-long 93-yard score to Jordy Nelson – in last week’s 24-3 win over St. Louis. Marshall Newhouse will be in charge of protecting Rodgers’ blind side for a second straight game with LT Chad Clifton (hamstring) out indefinitely. He’ll be up against NFL sack leader Jared Allen (10).
The Vikings’ front office thought Donovan McNabb could be a stop-gap to give Ponder, the 12th overall pick, time to develop. McNabb, however, has been horrendous. The 13-year veteran is 29th in touchdowns (4) and 19th in completion percentage (60.3). He was finally benched in Sunday night's loss to Chicago. Ponder went 9-for-17 for 99 yards after replacing McNabb in the fourth quarter and was named the starting quarterback Wednesday. The switch should help Adrian Peterson (537 yards, 7 TDs), who was held to 39 yards on 17 carries against Chicago. Ponder’s elusiveness may come in handy if LT Phil Loadholt (knee) and C John Sullivan (concussion) can’t play.
The Bears were able to neutralize Peterson last week by crowding the line of scrimmage, mainly because the Vikings' passing game posed a minimal threat. Ponder's going to have to make some plays to prevent Green Bay from using those very same tactics, and if the rookie has some success, the easier it will be for Minnesota's best offensive weapon to be a factor.
Minnesota shouldn't have much of a problem handling the Packers' running backs, but containing Rodgers and his collection of receivers will be a far more difficult assignment, especially with the Vikings short-handed in the secondary. It's vital that Allen and Robison bring the heat on Rodgers and get him out of his rhythm. If they can't, Green Bay's MVP candidate could have a field day throwing to matchup nightmares such as Finley and Jennings.
Packers TE Jermichael Finley missed both games against Minnesota last season. He had six catches for 128 yards and a touchdown against the Vikings in 2009.
"I know I have a lot of football in me," McNabb in response to his benching.
Rodgers threw for 301 yards and four touchdowns in the last meeting on Nov. 21, 2010.
Minnesota is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home
Minnesota is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games when playing Green Bay
Minnesota is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Green Bay
Green Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Green Bay's last 6 games when playing Minnesota
Green Bay is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games when playing Minnesota
The Vikings' offense could very well be in better hands under Ponder's direction as opposed to an ineffective McNabb, but this is still an awfully tough draw for the rookie. Green Bay has given up its share of passing yards this season, but the defense has still been pretty stingy in surrendering points and hasn't lacked the ability to come up with the big play. To beat the Packers, you have to outscore them, and it's highly questionable to believe Minnesota has the firepower to accomplish that feat as it's presently comprised.
Bet on NFL Football games with Bodog Sportsbook, click here!
NFL Football Pick: Take Packers.
Related Articles
- MNF Live Odds: Minnesota Vikings Visits Powerhouse Green Bay Packers
- Meaning Bout On Tap For Chicago Bears And Minnesota Vikings
- NFL Football Picks and Tips: Oakland To Meet Vikings In Minnesota
- Bodog Monday Night Football Odds and Lines: Vikings vs Packers
- Week 15 NFL Picks: Dome Happy Saints Travel To Minnesota Vikings
Category
Tags
aaron rodgers - adrian peterson - chad clifton - christian ponder - devin hester - donovan mcnabb - green bay packers - jared allen - jermichael finley - john sullivan
