NFL Picks: Houston Texans Look To Improve Status Against Carolina

Sunday, December 18, 2011

by Aengus Moorehead

T.J. Yates - NFL Picks: Houston Texans Look To Improve Status Against Carolina

Analysis:
Rookie quarterbacks have taken the NFL by storm this year. Albeit, most teams were not given a choice in the matter as injuries to starting play callers were essentially the culprit in most instances. Texan QB T.J. Yates obviously benefited from the opportunity and is savouring the moment.

The Houston Texans have already clinched their first AFC South title, but they'll look to extend their seven-game winning streak and strengthen their chances of locking down the AFC's top seed in the playoffs when they host another rookie in Cam Newton and the Panthers on Sunday at Reliant Stadium. The Texans have won both previous meetings, in 2003 and 2007.

Yates, a fifth-round draft pick out of the University of North Carolina, took over when backup quarterback Matt Leinart was lost for the season in a 20-13 Texans' win at Jacksonville on Nov. 27. Leinart was starting in place of Matt Schaub, who was already done for the season with a foot injury. Yates rallied the Texans from a nine-point deficit in the fourth quarter of last Sunday's 20-19 win over rookie signal-caller Andy Dalton and the Cincinnati Bengals, putting his team ahead for good with a six-yard touchdown pass to Kevin Walter with two seconds remaining.

The Texans needed to win and for Tennessee to lose against New Orleans in order to capture the franchise's first-ever division title, and that goal has been achieved. Yates and the rest of his teammates watched the Titans lose to the Saints in the locker room, and celebration ensued with T-shirts and caps.

Texans head coach Gary Kubiak was pleased with the outcome, but said there's still more work to do.
Kubiak may want to watch a few Denver Broncos games and gain a certain respect for winning ugly. Either way, the Texans are guaranteed to finish with only their second record above .500 in their history, as the 2009 squad was the first to do it with a 9-7 ledger.

Houston is also headed to the postseason for the first time, but may not have the architect of their stingy defense for the upcoming tournament. Coordinator Wade Phillips revealed this week he'll be taking a leave of absence to deal with health issues, though he is expected to return later this season.

Phillips has led the defense to a historical turnaround, as it is allowing 274.9 yards per game this season compared to 376.9 permitted in 2010. The Texans' 102-yard improvement is the best of any team since the 1970 AFL-NFL merger.

Linebackers coach Reggie Herring is expected to call defensive plays until Phillips is healthy enough to return.

Meanwhile, Newton has advanced tremendously as a rookie this season, even though the Panthers will miss the playoffs for a third straight year and fifth time in the past six seasons.

It was a tale of two halves for Newton in last Sunday's tough 31-23 home loss to the Atlanta Falcons, as the No. 1 pick in this past April's draft completed nine of his 14 passes for 147 yards and two touchdowns through the first 30 minutes but threw two costly interceptions in the second half. Newton did not rush for a touchdown for only the fourth time this season as well after setting a quarterback record with his 13th score on the ground two weeks ago.

Carolina's defense fell apart at the end and gave up a 75-yard touchdown to Falcons rookie wide receiver Julio Jones with 4:17 remaining in the game. The loss, which was Carolina's fourth in six games, ended a season-best two-game winning streak and pushed the Panthers further back in the NFC South.

Head coach Ron Rivera was nevertheless unhappy about blowing a big halftime lead, something that has happened on several occasions for his team.

Veteran wide receiver Steve Smith added by saying with the season winding down, it's time to start auditioning for jobs next season. Smith stated that it's unfortunate that some current players will not be employed next season, though his job status is certainly secure after the type of season he's had. Smith became the 35th player in NFL history to amass 10,000 receiving yards after compiling 125 yards on six catches against Atlanta.

Rivera would also like to see Carolina clean up its act in the penalty department. The Panthers are fourth in the league in penalty yardage with 891, behind only Oakland, Seattle and Detroit.

The Panthers and Texans have faced one another only twice previously, with Houston taking both matchups. Carolina was a 14-10 loser in its only prior visit to Reliant Stadium, which took place in 2003, and the Texans also topped the Panthers in Charlotte by a 34-21 score in 2007. Carolina's only victory in the city of Houston in its history took place on Nov. 24, 1996, a 31-6 rout of the Oilers at the Astrodome.

Kubiak moved to 1-0 lifetime against the Panthers with the above-mentioned 2007 win, while Rivera will be meeting both Houston and Kubiak for the first time as a head man.

Time & Venue:
- 1:00 PM ET, Sunday, December 18, 2011. Reliant Stadium, Houston, Texas

Last Week's results:
- Carolina Panthers (+3) loses to visiting Atlanta Falcons 31-23.
- Houston Texans (+3) beats host Cincinnati Bengals 20-19.

Last week's ATS:
- Underdog Carolina Panthers (4-9) loses and does not cover
- Underdog Houston Texans (10-3) wins outright.

NFL Football Odds: Texans -6, O/U 45

Next up:
- Carolina home to Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Saturday, December 24
- Houston at Indianapolis Colts, Thursday, December 22

Newton continues his prolific season – his 28 total touchdowns are the most by a rookie quarterback in NFL history, and his 13 rushing touchdowns are the most for any quarterback in a season – and veteran WR Steve Smith has put up an NFC-best 1,217 receiving yards to surpass 10,000 career yards, but the Panthers continue to struggle to close out games. They blew a 16-point halftime lead in a 31-23 home loss to Atlanta last week and have lost six games by eight points or less.


Yates passed for a career-high 300 yards and two touchdowns in last week's 20-19 win at Cincinnati, tossing a 6-yard touchdown to Kevin Walter with two seconds left. Even more impressive, Yates has done it without star WR Andre Johnson. Johnson has missed eight of the past nine games because of hamstring injuries and is not expected to play Sunday. He sat out six games with an injured right hamstring and injured the left hamstring in his first game back two weeks ago.

Panthers kicker Olindo Mare has been in the doghouse lately, and the team lit a fire under his behind this week by signing kicker Adi Kunalic, an undrafted rookie out of Nebraska. Mare missed a 36-yard field goal try against the Falcons by pulling it wide left, but had made 30 field goals in a row when he was in a groove with Seattle back in 2009. Both he and the Panthers hope that can happen again, and Carolina may need the veteran to come through if the game is close.

The Texans have won three in a row at home and are an impressive 5-1 as the host this season. They'll definitely be up for this one with Phillips out and the No. 1 seed in the conference still up for grabs, so the Panthers will have to match their opponent's intensity.

Carolina will try to unleash DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart on Houston's stingy defense in the early going. Williams had 87 yards and a touchdown on only seven carries against the Falcons and set a team record with a 74-yard scoring run in the second quarter. He leads the team with 656 rushing yards and four touchdowns on 126 attempts this season and ranks as the franchise's all-time leader with 967 rushing attempts, 4,867 rushing yards, 35 rushing touchdowns, a 5.03 yards-per- carry average and 16 games with 100 or more rushing yards. The Texans can't forget that Newton is also a dangerous threat to take off as well.

Texans RB Arian Foster needs 43 rushing yards to reach 1,000 for the second consecutive season. Foster and Ben Tate are the only running back duo in the league with more than 800 rushing yards apiece this season.

Newton has 3,573 passing yards, joining Peyton Manning and Sam Bradford as the only rookies in NFL history to pass for more than 3,500 yards.

Texans defensive coordinator Wade Phillips will miss the game after undergoing kidney and gall bladder surgery.

The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Houston's last 10 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Houston's last 5 games at home
Houston is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
Carolina is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Carolina's last 6 games on the road
Carolina is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games

The Panthers are a team on the rise and can prove that with an upset of the AFC South-champion Texans and a big road win Sunday. In order for that to happen, however, mistakes and penalties have to be kept at a minimum and Newton must keep his passes from going into the hands of Houston players.

Newton can't do it all alone, and will need his two top running backs prepared for a hard-hitting affair. The Texans will dedicate this game to Phillips, the team's defensive genius, but a failure to contain Newton and the Panthers' offense will eventually be too much to overcome on this afternoon.

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NFL Football Pick: Take points and Panthers.

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adi kunalic - afc south - andre johnson - andy dalton - arian foster - atlanta falcons - ben tate - cam newton - carolina panthers - cincinnati bengals

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